FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND INVESTMENTS

WILL THIS FORMULA......?. Analysis of the Editor.

2009-09-17T07:39:00.000-07:00

As has been announcing, the formula to cover the cash deficits of the State, as a result of the drop in oil prices and the decline in shares in the market, it will be the issuance of new debt, now by methods something different.

Specialized publications and consultations to officials of the financial sector, have outlined that the ente issuer is the CENTRAL BANK OF VENEZUELA, through the use of debt paper of the Republic, who maintain a high quotation and acceptance among the roles of the emerging market ; leaving aside the thesis that located in different entities of the government (Pdvsa, CVG, Metro de Caracas, among others) as those in charge of debt for such purposes, a situation that changed with the reality financial, operational and market of the same, who had given the failure of the emission of debt, essentially in international markets.

On the other hand, determine the same sources, that the amount will be between 4 and 6 billion dollars, to deadlines and medium and long, and not short as what happened with the Petrobonos. The government has maintained this week, a strong presence in the market in the barter in the goal of lowering their quotation, something that has achieved, dropping by almost 5% the value of the same with regard to the opening of the week.

Whereas the proceedings of the government on the market in the Barter, improvements in the liquidations on the part of Cadivi, coupled with the measures that can take the government under the above features, I believe that the government raises make a debt issuance with yields attractive, in the medium term, but with a price on the par or with a premium is not very high, so as to create a roof as low as possible for the dollar swap, which would remain the benchmark of the currency after the emissions, so to download the effect on inflation has this activity.

The government continues to gamble to the increase in oil prices, and finding your way in the estimates of the US$80 per barrel for the last quarter of 2009, as have expressed spokespersons of Opec, buoyed, in addition, by the investments of the Russian companies and belarussian in projects of the strip of the Orinoco (which is also the prospects for the Block Carabobo, several times postponed by the perception of risk country) and the development of the gas plants whose reservations have already been determined by the spanish Repsol between 1,200 and 1,400 million barrels, which seems put the country among the first producers of line in the world

THE GOVERNMENT "TAKES WITH CALM" BEFORE TAKING THE ECONOMIC MEASURES. Article of the Editor.

2009-09-11T09:47:00.000-07:00

The government and the financial authorities venezuelan seem to miss the time, to observe until where reaches the barrel of oil in its dizzying ascent, with the order to avoid actions nothing popular as an increase of gasoline and devaluation of official exchange rate, up to now banners of their economic policy.

In the meantime remains in a policy that has been driving for some time, participate in the market for the Swaps, thanks to increases in oil prices (see the 10/09 SWAP IN MINIMUM LAST FOUR MONTHS. How are the Papers Venezuelans?. Editor's Note ), which has allowed him to download the parallel exchange rate at prices that today is traded on maximum of 6.25, minimum of the last four months.

Also, i agree with the reports issued this week by Barclays and Santander Investment which measures so unpopular not be taken, raise the debt will be the government's policy to cover the fiscal deficit caused the fall of oil revenues via price and by falling levels of production.

The time has played in favor of the government until now, but in the economy measures that are not taken to time, then are more costly. Is Hereby await the arrival of President Chavez, to see if their financial advisors can run.

SWAP IN MINIMUM LAST FOUR MONTHS. How are the Papers Venezuelans?. Editor's Note

2009-09-10T10:09:00.000-07:00

Intense has been the supply of foreign currency carried out by governmental institutions, supported by the increase in the price per barrel of oil, which have produced a significant drop in the price of the Swap, list the price of the currency in the morning to maximum Bs.6,20 to purchase and of 6.30 for sale, which has led to a good demand by importers equally.

It is expected to keep this trend until the end of the week, when come back the President Chavez to the country, to determine, finally, the economic measures to take, which will always be geared to narrow the gap between the Swap and the dollar journal, it would be important to know where.

PAPERS VENEZUELANS.

In statements to the Newspaper EL UNIVERSAL, the analyst and managers of BBO Servicios Financieros Miguel Octavio, argues that while on the one hand there is a new flow of funds from investors regain confidence in emerging markets and higher yields, which has led the price of Global 27 (one of the most representative of the Venezuelan Stock) to quotations of 76.75%, when less than 60 days the price is located in 67.69%, endorsed in a yield of 12 per cent.

However, between what raised by officials of the government between the economic measures, is the issuance of new bonds of the public sector, mainly Petrobonos, which are listed at the moment to a 74.25 percent of its value, which determines a rate of exchange implicit very similar to the quotation on the swap, so it is very interesting for the local buyers, and its quotation is very high for the buyers outsiders, whereas at the time of the issuance of the bond came to quoted in the 58 per cent, whereas some analysts that he is close to the price ceiling, even when its total cancellation is in the short term.

ALI RODRIGUEZ...WHO UNDERSTANDS?....Opinion of the Editor.

2009-09-07T13:04:00.000-07:00

First of all i want to append summary issued by the Dept. of the Press of the Ministry of Economy and Finance on statements issued yesterday by the holder of the portfolio Ali Rodriguez Araque, allowing me to comment later.
_____________________________________________________________________________ Government hopes resize financial sector to boost domestic production between the strategies evaluated by the national Executive to overcome the distortions in the Venezuelan economy is the re of the financial sector, which until now has been focused more speculative activities. So noted this Thursday the minister of P. P. for Economy and Finance, Ali Rodriguez Araque, during a conference offered in the center of Latin American Studies Romulo Gallegos (Celarg), within the framework of the days of thought and critical reflection of the foundations of the Socialist Party United Venezuela (PSUV).

The high official insisted that the banking, both public and private, must be geared more toward the financial intermediation and less toward the speculative activities, because its rationale is to ensure the stimulation of domestic production . Rodriguez Araque made a point to remember that precisely the global crisis of capitalism reflects the fact that increasingly the banking american was directed toward the financial speculation.

The Minister added that next to a reorientation of bank credit the Government seeks greater stability in the macroeconomic variables of the nation, a task where it plays an important role the diversification of export products and the control of inflation. In that sense, He added that the development of the agricultural sector and the satisfaction of the housing needs of the population are also part of the strategies for the economic momentum and the expansion of the domestic market.

By playing the theme of inflation, assured that it can close to end of the year in 26%, below the 31% reached in December 2008. For this are being attacked the main components that affect the indicator inflation: food and non-alcoholic beverages, hotels and transport, he said. The Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Central Bank of Venezuela, next to other institutions, we are working to achieve this estimate , said. __________________________________________________________________________________ OPINION OF THE EDITOR.

The Banks are first and foremost commercial enterprises, designed to generate useful to their partners and shareholders. However, the Banking has a very strong impact on the economy of any country, to be the ente channeling the liquidity that might be surplus to depositors toward those individuals and companies that, above all, generate a productive activity, which require financing for their operations, or to consumers that require a spending, and are able to assume a financial cost to that end, this is one of the legs of the table on which it holds any economy in the world, and the oil lubricates the wheels of the same, apart from being a basic concept and elementary Economy.

However, the Minister Rodriguez argues that "resize the financial sector" and guidance to credit; please Minister, if the economic strategy that you leads is geared to speculation on papers to generate more debt, and with that cover running costs of public administration, to complete, with yields high to the market. Then, how to where i was going to lead the banking their resources, in many cases until obliged by law?, What to whom he did issue some bonds agricultural, so-called to boost the sowing at national level, and decrease of the portfolio agropecuaria compulsory?, What state institution determined that the Petrobonos does not fall in the balance sheets of financial institutions such as dollar positions? And stop count.

You know exonerate Mr. Minister, but was put too much "slight" to the crafty bankers( pay attention, this is not the defending) and not the went to "fail". Mr. Minister the activities of the banking be reoriented when his Ministry, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Planning and Development (still exists? Where is Giordani?), stop thinking as Treasurers of Bank of America and more as responsible for the economic organization of a country, where it is really impetus to the establishment of the industry in which we competitive and can generate jobs, where do conventions with businessmen from other countries and not with governments traders, where it operates and to protect our main industry, each day with the worst indices of productivity, among many other things, and secure the financial system will accompany naturally in that direction, and not by decree