jueves, 17 de septiembre de 2009

WILL THIS FORMULA......?. Analysis of the Editor.

As has been announcing, the formula to cover the cash deficits of the State, as a result of the drop in oil prices and the decline in shares in the market, it will be the issuance of new debt, now by methods something different.

Specialized publications and consultations to officials of the financial sector, have outlined that the ente issuer is the CENTRAL BANK OF VENEZUELA, through the use of debt paper of the Republic, who maintain a high quotation and acceptance among the roles of the emerging market ; leaving aside the thesis that located in different entities of the government (Pdvsa, CVG, Metro de Caracas, among others) as those in charge of debt for such purposes, a situation that changed with the reality financial, operational and market of the same, who had given the failure of the emission of debt, essentially in international markets.

On the other hand, determine the same sources, that the amount will be between 4 and 6 billion dollars, to deadlines and medium and long, and not short as what happened with the Petrobonos. The government has maintained this week, a strong presence in the market in the barter in the goal of lowering their quotation, something that has achieved, dropping by almost 5% the value of the same with regard to the opening of the week.

Whereas the proceedings of the government on the market in the Barter, improvements in the liquidations on the part of Cadivi, coupled with the measures that can take the government under the above features, I believe that the government raises make a debt issuance with yields attractive, in the medium term, but with a price on the par or with a premium is not very high, so as to create a roof as low as possible for the dollar swap, which would remain the benchmark of the currency after the emissions, so to download the effect on inflation has this activity.

The government continues to gamble to the increase in oil prices, and finding your way in the estimates of the US$80 per barrel for the last quarter of 2009, as have expressed spokespersons of Opec, buoyed, in addition, by the investments of the Russian companies and belarussian in projects of the strip of the Orinoco (which is also the prospects for the Block Carabobo, several times postponed by the perception of risk country) and the development of the gas plants whose reservations have already been determined by the spanish Repsol between 1,200 and 1,400 million barrels, which seems put the country among the first producers of line in the world